United States Energy Information Administration, EIA, raised its US crude oil production forecast for 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month. According to its July STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output, including lease condensate, averaging 13.78 million barrels per day this year.
The EIA’s July STEO was the latest in a line of STEOs which increased the EIA’s U.S. production prediction for the year. Back in its June STEO, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.72 million barrels per day in 2026.
In its May STEO, the EIA saw US crude oil production averaging 13.65 million barrels per day this year, and in its April STEO, the EIA projected that this output would come in at 13.51 million barrels per day in 2026.
Looking at 2027, the EIA’s July STEO lowered its US crude oil production projection compared to its previous STEO but still expected output to come in over 14 million barrels per day. In its latest STEO, the EIA sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 14.03 million barrels per day.
The EIA’s June STEO saw this output coming in at 14.15 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production has never averaged 14 million barrels per day or above annually, or even monthly, according to EIA figures.
The country’s oil output has averaged 13 million barrels per day on two occasions annually, and on multiple occasions monthly, EIA figures highlighted.
A data page on the EIA site displaying annual US field production of crude oil – which was last updated on June 30 and includes data from 1859 to 2025 – showed that the highest average annual US field production of crude oil figure was seen in 2025, at 13.586 million barrels per day.
Before this, annual US field production of crude oil had only averaged 13 million barrels per day in one other year – 2024, at 13.235 million barrels per day – the EIA data revealed.
A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly US field production of crude oil – which was also last updated on June 30 and includes data from January 1920 to April 2026 – showed that the highest average monthly US field production of crude oil figure was seen in April this year, at 13.934 million barrels per day.
The second highest figure was seen in October 2025, at 13.864 million barrels per day, and the third highest figure came in September 2025, at 13.828 million barrels per day, according to the data page. Monthly US field output of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day on 31 occasions, the data page showed.
Four of these were seen in 2026, 12 were seen in 2025, 11 came in 2024, and four came in 2023, the data page highlighted. In its July STEO, the EIA projected that Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, will contribute 11.34 million barrels per day to the total projected figure of 13.78 million barrels per day for U.S. crude oil production in 2026.
The Federal Gulf of America is expected to contribute 1.99 million barrels per day and Alaska is expected to contribute 0.45 million barrels per day, the STEO showed. Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, are expected to make up 11.65 million barrels per day of the total projected figure of 14.03 million barrels per day for 2027, the STEO highlighted.
The Federal Gulf of America contributes 1.89 million barrels per day, and Alaska makes up 0.50 million barrels per day, the STEO projected. The EIA’s July STEO showed that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025.
Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of America, made up 11.27 million barrels per day of that total figure, the Federal Gulf of America made up 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska made up 0.42 million barrels per day, the STEO highlighted.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that total US crude oil output, including lease condensate, will average 13.78 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.88 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 13.99 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 14.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 14.00 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 14.07 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
This breakdown showed that total US crude oil production averaged 13.57 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year and 13.88 million barrels per day in the second quarter.
Total US crude oil production came in at 13.28 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.51 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.78 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.77 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to the EIA’s July STEO.
