According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC output increased by 930,000 barrels a day last year to 22.8 million a day, or roughly 88 percent of the volume the same members pumped in February, the survey indicated. Group leader, Saudi Arabia, accounted for most of the hike, as it increasingly manages to shuttle tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and load cargoes on its Red Sea coast, despite ongoing hostilities triggered by the US-Iran conflict. Gains in Iraq and Kuwait were offset by losses in Nigeria and Iran, where production was squeezed to the lowest in at least three decades by a US naval blockade. The recovery in OPEC supplies has helped cool oil prices from the highs reached last month, offering the global economy the prospect of relief from elevated fuel costs. Brent futures slumped this week to trade near $98 a barrel, as President Donald Trump signaled potential deescalation in the wake of his party’s defeat during midterm elections.
The cost of physical oil cargoes, which trade at a differential to crude futures, has tumbled in markets ranging from the Middle East to the North Sea and Africa as the tide of supplies comes while consumption remains depressed. Saudi Arabia raised production by 970,000 barrels a day in October to 9.2 million a day, according to the survey. That’s still about 800,000 a day below rates pumped at the start of the year. The kingdom’s oil exports averaged 7 million barrels a day last month, approaching prewar levels, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Aramco chief executive officer, Amin Nasser told an industry conference in Abu Dhabi earlier last week that the company aims to “maximise production going forward in the fourth quarter.”
The next-biggest increase among OPEC members in October came from Iraq, which raised output by 140,000 barrels a day to 4.15 million a day. After that was Kuwait, which boosted by 130,000 to average 2 million barrels a day, the survey indicated. The largest decreases were in Nigeria and Iran. Output from the Islamic Republic declined by 120,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million a day, the lowest in monthly data compiled by Bloomberg that extend back to 1989. No tankers have been observed in satellite images of the country’s main oil-loading terminals such as Kharg Island since late August, as the US continues to impose a blockade of the country’s ports. OPEC and its allies are conducting a review of how much each member is technically able to pump, with a view to setting output targets for 2027 when ministers meet on November 29. Bloomberg’s production survey is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials and estimates from consultants Rapidan Energy Group, FGE NexantECA, Kpler Ltd. and Rystad Energy AS.
