AI Could Raise global trade to nearly 40% by 2040, says WTO
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has hinted on the potential of Artificial intelligence (AI) to increase the value of global trade by almost 40 percent by 2040. The organisation, however, noted that the cability of the innovation to charge the projection would be determined by cost reductions and productivity gains.
WTO gave the forecast in its latest annual World Trade Report last week Wednesday, which highlighted AI as a rare bright spot amid global trade disruptions caused by high tariffs imposed by the United States on its trade partners. Presenting the report, WTO director-general, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said “AI holds major promise to boost trade by lowering trade costs and reshaping the production of goods and services.”
The report, however, warned that without appropriate policies, lower-income countries might miss out on the benefits. “One important question is whether AI will lift opportunities for all, or whether it will deepen existing inequalities and exclusion,” Okonjo-Iweala noted.
According to WTO economists, lowerincome economies could see only an eight percent rise in incomes by 2040 if the digital divide persists, compared with a 14 percent increase in higher-income countries. But it noted that narrowing the digital infrastructure gap by 50 percent and adopting AI more broadly could enable the low-income nations to achieve similar gains.
“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies,” the WTO director-general added. The report also highlighted a growing trend of countries imposing restrictions on AI-related trade, with nearly 500 such restrictions last year, mostly from higherand medium-income economies, compared with just 130 in 2012.
The WTO’s findings underscore the transformative potential of AI in global trade while also highlighting the urgent need for inclusive policies and infrastructure development. Countries that invest in digital capacity and equitable AI adoption could see unprecedented economic growth, while those that lag risk widening the global inequality gap, the report concluded.
